Saturday, July 31, 2010

Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition

The election seems to be turning and the latest poll seems disastrous for Labor.  Perhaps Julia Gillard will now come out of her shell and stop the one line, focus group tested answers and show us some of the spark she has in Question Time in the Parliament.    Or she could become the fifth shortest serving Prime Ministers.

Courtesy of the always reliable GhostWhoVotes, we are informed of a bombshell Nielsen poll which puts the Coalition at an election-winning 52-48 lead, from primary votes of 45 per cent for the Coalition, 36 per cent for Labor and 12 per cent for the Greens. More to follow.

UPDATE: Michelle Grattan reports “the gender gap on voting intention has disappeared, with primary and two-party-preferred votes now little different” – which frankly doesn’t seem likely. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is down five points to 51 per cent and her disapproval up six to 39 per cent, while Tony Abbott is up six points on approval to 49 per cent and disapproval down six to 45 per cent. Gillard’s lead on preferred prime minister has narrowed from 55-34 to 49-41. The poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1356.

Via The Poll Bludger

Friday, July 30, 2010

Clarke and Dawe: Election campaign in comedy

Clarke and Dawe are masters at the art of sarcasm.  Another top video which sums up the election campaign so far.

Monday, July 26, 2010

Who has a plan for Australia?

In the washup of the great (or “not so great”) debate, Peter Hartcher writes that while not being flashy Julia Gillard showed she has a plan for Australia.  Tony Abbott, on the other hand, did a good job as an opposition leader but has no plan or vision for the country.  Who do you want leading the country? 

Tony Abbott made a strong critique of the Gillard Labor government in last night's debate, but utterly failed to establish his own party as the alternative.

Abbott approached the debate as he is approaching the election - as an Opposition Leader, an insurgent, a little angry, seeking a protest vote, hoping we will reject the government rather than embrace the Coalition.

He even hinted at some blokeish resentment of the biological fact Gillard is a woman, and has an advantage with women voters - Abbott appealed to voters to choose their government on the basis of the job done, "not on gender".

This turns gender inequality on its head, suggesting Abbott thinks Gillard the beneficiary of a gender bias, and sees himself as the victim.

This was too much. Gillard has never played on her gender, never run as a "women's" candidate.

By suggesting some sort of gender inequality is at work, Abbott was not legitimately criticising his rival but revealing his own exasperation with women voters.

But the central problem of Abbott's performance was the absence of a plan for government.

He stuck hard at Labor over its leadership coup, asking how the public could trust the Labor Party "when even Kevin Rudd couldn't".

Abbott offered an "action contract" to the Australian electorate, but every point on it is a repudiation of Labor and not a positive alternative.

This is his mantra - he promises to "end the waste, repay the debt, stop new taxes and stop the boats".

Abbott likes this so much he ran through it no fewer than three times. But it's a mantra for an opposition, not a government. He failed to mention any positive offerings on education or health. Abbott did play up his plan for a more generous paid parental leave, but a single initiative is not a plan for government.

Gillard's performance was not compelling, but she was positive, self-possessed, at ease, and, vitally, she had a plan.

Where Abbott chanted his four-point repudiation, Gillard pitched positives.

She listed the Government's six-point economic plan, plus its new offerings on education and health. Taking a tip from US presidential debates, she repeatedly declared herself an optimist, a sunny contrast to Abbott's dark clouds of concern.

The bottom line? Abbott ran as an insurgent, not a potential prime minister. Gillard ran as a leader with a positive plan. That is why she won the debate.

I think Tony Abbott spends far too much time talking about which ALP policies he thinks have “failed” and not enough time on where he wants the country to head. And of course how tot get there.  Kevin Rudd won power on a positive message and vision.  Even if at times it resembled a “me too” campaign.  Can Abbott change himself this late in the game? 

Source: Abbott, a man with a gripe and a mantra: Sydney Morning Herald

Sunday, July 25, 2010

Toeing the party line on same sex marriage

If anyone doubted that Senator Penny Wong was a consummate politician who would never depart from the party line, an article from the Sydney Morning Herald smashes that doubt.

Senator Wong, the first openly gay cabinet minister, said of same sex marriage:

‘‘I think the reality is there is a cultural, religious, historical view around that which we have to respect,’’ she told Network Ten today.

‘‘The party’s position is very clear that this is an institution that is between a man and a woman.’’

Senator Wong said she respected Labor’s view of marriage as an institution between a man and a woman.

‘‘I am part of a party and I support the party’s policies.’’

Senator Wong did point out that the Rudd Government did make a number of advancements of the cause of same sex couples.

Senator Wong … said she was proud of what the party had achieved in recognising the value and importance of same-sex relationships.

Various reforms had been made during Labor’s first term of government, including the changing of 80 pieces of legislation to remove commonwealth discrimination.

It is amazing how politicians can hold back their personal views on issues that directly affect them, just to hold the party line. 

This story made me think of an episode of The West Wing (incidentally my favourite TV show) where a gay congressman produced a bill banning marriage.  Deputy Chief of Staff Joshua Lyman wrongly thought he was trying to ban gay marriage.  Senator Boniot clarified:

“My bill bans all marriage. If the government can't make it available to everyone, I want us out of the business entirely.  Leave it to churches and synagogues, and, of course, casinos and department stores.”

Makes for an interesting point.  If Government’s have all sorts of discrimination legislation then why is this one area of discrimination so hard to deal with.  If Governments want to be in the business of sanctioning (non-religious) marriage then why can it not be afforded to same sex couples?  It is certainly not that it wouldn't get through Parliament.  The Gillard Government would have the support of the Greens.  Recent polling also suggests that it is favoured by a majority of Australians. 

I am not naive and I know that this is an emotive issue and would create a massive wedge between the ALP and the Coalition.  Perhaps the politics is the main reason why we will not see same sex marriage on the agenda for many years to come. 

Because as Penny Wong has shown this week, politics is number one in the land of politicians.

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Julia Gillard: Dance craze “Moving Forward”

This is a dance craze that Triple M compiled.  Very funny.

The value (or lack of) of online polls

On the Daily Telegraph website today a poll asks who will win the upcoming election, Julia Gillard or Tony Abbott.  The result as at 9.35am is:

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Which is funny considering the latest Newspoll shows:

newspoll 

Gillard: red; Abbott: blue

So how can we marry up these two conflicting polls?  What value should be placed on online (or even phone in) polls? 

I would suggest none. 

Online or phone in polls are based on people voluntarily using the website or calling the poll number.  This means they must be motivated to enter the poll and it may be biased for a number of other reasons. 

It may be that one type of party voter is more interested in taking part in the poll on a particular issue.  Voters who vote ALP may be more interested in reading about IR policy stories which have a linked question conversely Coalition voters may be more interested in a story linked to business.  This would therefore lead to a skewing in the sample pool.  The sample pool is hardly random. 

Other than this you just need to look at the above contrasting polls to know that something is up!

 

UPDATE:

This is further evidence of the lack of cogency of online polls.  On Monday 2/8/10 the Couriermail had a poll asking “Which party would get your first preference”  And the results:

1

So who reads and contributes to the couriermail polls?  Overwhelmingly Liberal supporters!

Talk radio entertains some truly horrible people

I recently reviewed the 4BC website and saw a section on Police pay demands.  I reviewed the handful of comments listed by listeners and came across this particularly disturbing one:

BRING BACK THE ICAC ... Lets see how many police hang themselves this time with all the police corruption and the hide of them wanting pay rises. I got offered a bribe by a moree police officer and all that happened to him was a slap on the wrist and i have this in black and white on paper, BRING BACK THE ICAC FIRST, see who hangs themselves first and then see if they deserve it - Terry Thursday 15 July, 2010 - 7:29 AM

To suggest that anyone should go an hang themself is disgraceful.  I applaud them for taking up the fight for Police to be offered more than the appalling 2.5% pay increase.  But for 4BC to allow this to be posted (presumably without moderation) on their site is disappointing and allows bigots a forum to spread their bile. 

 

On a side note: The ICAC is a NSW based organisation (not Qld) – the Independent Commission Against Corruption.  Moree is also a town in NSW.  Qld has a body called the CMC which is the same as ICAC therefore negating the need to bring back an ICAC. 

Terry is a moron!