Will the real Joe Hockey please stand up?

Since Tony Abbot announced he would challenge Malcolm Turnbull for the leadership if would not resign, Joe Hockey is the name on everyone's lips. Most believe that he is the right person to lead the party, but most believe he doesn't want to do it right now. Hockey is a realist and knows that even had the events of the past week not occurred, the Liberal party would not be strong enough by the next election to wrestle it from the Government.

Now however, as his name is bandied about as a potential leader, Joe Hockey has gone into hiding. He has made no public statements since the crisis started and when confronted by reporters he refused to be drawn on the issue. (Personally I don't blame him, they stalked him at home and propped him on the front driveway!)

Now my argument with Joe is that on any given week he will provide interviews for any show currently airing on television. But now when he will be seriously questioned he goes into hiding. This may be because on the ETS issue he agrees with Malcolm Turnbull and is trying to devise a plan to take the leadership while holding true to the same values as Mr Turnbull. Or is he hiding trying to work out how to reject the leadership because he knows that it is a poisoned chalice. Either way, if he becomes leader or dodges the bullet he needs to make a statement on where he stands. Leadership is about taking positions not hiding out for calmer waters.

UPDATE:
Joe Hockey now appears certain to run against Malcolm Turnbull in the leadership spill on Tuesday.  He is believed to be meeting with his proposed deputy Peter Dutton.  The way the Liberal Party has acted this week it is fairly clear that the face a steep climb up the political everest if they want to win back the confidence of the Australian people.  Surely Hockey doesn't think that he can turn around the Liberal party before the next election.  I think you made the wrong move Joe.  You have set yourself up for failure and once you do the political brutus' now supporting you (Minchin, Abbott and others) will knife you as well.

Malcolm Turnbull: Dead man walking

Malcolm Turnbull is facing a crisis of mammoth proportions.  He has frontbenchers resigning in droves, increasing speculation that either Tony Abbot and now Joe Hockey will run against him for the leadership.  Regardless of whether Malcolm Turnbull can survive the current political crisis swamping him, the party s in such disarray that they will not recover to be a viable alternative government.  And with this his chances of being prime minister are finished.  Unless of course he can do a Howard like return in a decade or so.  However, I don't think he has the stamina for that.

The Liberal party are deluding themselves if they think they can recover from this by November 2010 or worse early next year if there is a double dissolution election.  Turnbull will struggle to hold on past Monday and I think that we will see a new leader.  But if he manages to hold on until the next election, he will lose (and lose big) and after that loss he will be dumped.  Therefore regardless of whether he holds on now he is still a dead man walking.

The next big test for Malcolm Turnbull

Malcolm Turnbull has stared down detractors within his Party this morning after a vote on the calling of a spill was rejected 48-35. Three Parliamentary Secretaries have resigned, senior Opposition Ministers and party heavyweights have openly objected to both Malcolm Turnbull's style and approach and his stance on the CPRS.

Although this win on the spill motion will be great comfort to Malcolm Turnbull, it will do little if there continues to be open revolt within the Party. This revolt could result in enough Liberal Senators choosing not to go with the party line and follow their own path on a vote tomorrow. The Liberal Senators could still choose to vote against the CPRS. If this occurs they will have signed Malcolm Turnbull's political death certificate and reduced the Coalition to many many years in Opposition.

I think regardless of a vote tomorrow the Coalition is currently locked a deathroll that will not end prior to the next election whether that be early or late 2010. My bet is on late 2010.

UPDATE

Malcolm Turnbull has begun the ground work to strengthen his position by demanding Senators follow the party line.  He understands that every Senator that votes against the CPRS (and effectively him), weakens his position and adds to his political pain.  This will not be a good week for the leader.  Many will vote against him but the real test will be how many.

VIDEO: Liberal showdown

Dennis Shanahan from the Australian provides his view on the CPRS and leadership problems plaguing the Federal Liberal Party.


VIDEO: Liberal showdown

Democracy: Liberal Style!

Yesterday the Coalition party room endorsed the amendments to the CPRS and will pass the emissions trading scheme this week, or at least that is what Malcolm Turnbull has told us. This endorsement is based on Turnbull's counting the number of members who spoke for the issue during their 8 hour standoff.

It is strange that one of the tenants of our liberal democracy, that majority rules, is decided in the Liberal Party by just one man. Does this sound like democracy or something else? Surely a show of hands, division of the room, secret ballot or some other method of counting the numbers whereby everyone has faith in the outcome is the democratic thing to do. Turnbull's belief, and that of many of his supporters, is that they got a majority without the need for a formal vote. But the dissidents believe the opposite. We will never know.

Transparency in politics deflects all (reasonable) criticism. Secrecy and avoidance breeds uncertainty and speculation. What Malcolm thought might be his defining moment where he asserted his authority as leader has only loosened his grip on the leadership of his party.

ETS: Will they or won’t they?

The Emissions Trading Scheme (or as it is know in Canberra the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme) is currently before the Senate after being approved for a second time by the House of Representatives. The pressure is squarely on the Opposition and in particular Malcolm Turnbull to pass the Bill. The Government is also applying the blow torch by telling the public that the opposition will have more than enough time to debate the issue internally and decide on their position while also delay any possible deal until Tuesday. The Government have certainly being playing the politics right with help of course from the fractured opposition.

The Opposition have their leader in favour of it and "asserting his authority as leader" or at least trying to. Barnaby Joyce and the Nationals are oppose to it regardless. Nick Minchin, the third highest ranking Liberal, is on the Joyce bandwagon and doesn't really believe in Climate Change. Tony Abbot was originally for the Bill but for purely political reasons (i.e. to avoid a double dissolution election) but now he appears to have changed that position.

On Tuesday the Liberal/National party room will decide whether to support the Bill (in amended form) or oppose it and face a double dissolution election. Will they oppose it or will they come out the other side spruiking that they saved the country from the Rudd Government's failed scheme. Many in the coalition, Tony Abbot is one, believe that this Bill should not be passed until after Copenhagen. I personally believe that the Coalition will make the politically correct move and pass the Bill. The majority do not have the courage of their convictions to oppose the Bill on philosophical grounds.

Only time will tell.

Senator Fielding: why do it?

Senator Fielding won his seat in the Federal Senate with less than 2% of the popular vote in the 2004 Election. He relied heavily on preferences from numerous parties to get across the line. During his first term he was fairly invisible as far as his public profile is concerned.  The Howard Government held the majority in both houses and only needed his support on a few occasions.  It wasn't until after the 2007 election that he came to real prominence due to his balance of power position along with Senator Nick Xenophon and 5 from the Greens. Even then he hasn't been as smart a politician as his first term colleague, Xenophon, who held the Government to ransom to get more for his State out of the Stimulus package.

Sen. Fielding recently announced, after a bungled interview where he misspelt the word FISCAL, that he has suffered from a learning difficulty. Now at the time of the Rudd Governments apology to the forgotten people Fielding announced that he was the victim sexual abuse as a child.

Now the purpose of my blog is not to suggest that Senator Fielding is exploiting these two events (the first terribly unfortunate and the second horrific) for political purposes. I find that the abuse he suffered is abhorrent and should not be forced upon any child. Listening to his interview with Neil Mitchell on 3AW you can really feel the emotion and hurt that he feels. If he is to be believed, and I have no reason not too, he did not intend on revealing this fact but the emotion overcame him.

But is Senator Fielding revealing these very personal demons for no good reason. I don't think he has a good enough grip on his own emotions to be an advocate for victims or perhaps I am wrong. I don't however believe that this will catapult him to victory at the next election. Senator Fielding may act now as a beacon for other victims to either come forward to the police, as Fielding has done, or talk to someone about it. This can only be seen as a good thing. However, from listening to him speak about the issue, he is clearly not in a good place in terms of dealing with this. Is the national political stage really the best place to be talking about this under these circumstances.

I hope that some of the Forgotten People take some solace from Senator Fielding's revelations but I don't know that his recent revelations will do much to keep him in the Senate chamber. I only hope they help heal this sore wound or else it will have been done for no good reason.

Left to Think begins

This is my first post from my new blog "Left to Think".

I am a law student in Brisbane, Australia and will be writing about the state of politics in Queensland and Australia. I will be giving you my thoughts on relevant events that are in the media.

I hope you enjoy my perspectives and contribute to the debate. Ultimately I hope you are Left to Think about issues that affect us all.

If you want to contact me by email please do so by using this link.