Malcolm Turnbull is facing a crisis of mammoth proportions. He has frontbenchers resigning in droves, increasing speculation that either Tony Abbot and now Joe Hockey will run against him for the leadership. Regardless of whether Malcolm Turnbull can survive the current political crisis swamping him, the party s in such disarray that they will not recover to be a viable alternative government. And with this his chances of being prime minister are finished. Unless of course he can do a Howard like return in a decade or so. However, I don't think he has the stamina for that.
The Liberal party are deluding themselves if they think they can recover from this by November 2010 or worse early next year if there is a double dissolution election. Turnbull will struggle to hold on past Monday and I think that we will see a new leader. But if he manages to hold on until the next election, he will lose (and lose big) and after that loss he will be dumped. Therefore regardless of whether he holds on now he is still a dead man walking.
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