Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition

The election seems to be turning and the latest poll seems disastrous for Labor.  Perhaps Julia Gillard will now come out of her shell and stop the one line, focus group tested answers and show us some of the spark she has in Question Time in the Parliament.    Or she could become the fifth shortest serving Prime Ministers.

Courtesy of the always reliable GhostWhoVotes, we are informed of a bombshell Nielsen poll which puts the Coalition at an election-winning 52-48 lead, from primary votes of 45 per cent for the Coalition, 36 per cent for Labor and 12 per cent for the Greens. More to follow.

UPDATE: Michelle Grattan reports “the gender gap on voting intention has disappeared, with primary and two-party-preferred votes now little different” – which frankly doesn’t seem likely. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is down five points to 51 per cent and her disapproval up six to 39 per cent, while Tony Abbott is up six points on approval to 49 per cent and disapproval down six to 45 per cent. Gillard’s lead on preferred prime minister has narrowed from 55-34 to 49-41. The poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1356.

Via The Poll Bludger

Clarke and Dawe: Election campaign in comedy

Clarke and Dawe are masters at the art of sarcasm.  Another top video which sums up the election campaign so far.

Who has a plan for Australia?

In the washup of the great (or “not so great”) debate, Peter Hartcher writes that while not being flashy Julia Gillard showed she has a plan for Australia.  Tony Abbott, on the other hand, did a good job as an opposition leader but has no plan or vision for the country.  Who do you want leading the country? 

Tony Abbott made a strong critique of the Gillard Labor government in last night's debate, but utterly failed to establish his own party as the alternative.

Abbott approached the debate as he is approaching the election - as an Opposition Leader, an insurgent, a little angry, seeking a protest vote, hoping we will reject the government rather than embrace the Coalition.

He even hinted at some blokeish resentment of the biological fact Gillard is a woman, and has an advantage with women voters - Abbott appealed to voters to choose their government on the basis of the job done, "not on gender".

This turns gender inequality on its head, suggesting Abbott thinks Gillard the beneficiary of a gender bias, and sees himself as the victim.

This was too much. Gillard has never played on her gender, never run as a "women's" candidate.

By suggesting some sort of gender inequality is at work, Abbott was not legitimately criticising his rival but revealing his own exasperation with women voters.

But the central problem of Abbott's performance was the absence of a plan for government.

He stuck hard at Labor over its leadership coup, asking how the public could trust the Labor Party "when even Kevin Rudd couldn't".

Abbott offered an "action contract" to the Australian electorate, but every point on it is a repudiation of Labor and not a positive alternative.

This is his mantra - he promises to "end the waste, repay the debt, stop new taxes and stop the boats".

Abbott likes this so much he ran through it no fewer than three times. But it's a mantra for an opposition, not a government. He failed to mention any positive offerings on education or health. Abbott did play up his plan for a more generous paid parental leave, but a single initiative is not a plan for government.

Gillard's performance was not compelling, but she was positive, self-possessed, at ease, and, vitally, she had a plan.

Where Abbott chanted his four-point repudiation, Gillard pitched positives.

She listed the Government's six-point economic plan, plus its new offerings on education and health. Taking a tip from US presidential debates, she repeatedly declared herself an optimist, a sunny contrast to Abbott's dark clouds of concern.

The bottom line? Abbott ran as an insurgent, not a potential prime minister. Gillard ran as a leader with a positive plan. That is why she won the debate.

I think Tony Abbott spends far too much time talking about which ALP policies he thinks have “failed” and not enough time on where he wants the country to head. And of course how tot get there.  Kevin Rudd won power on a positive message and vision.  Even if at times it resembled a “me too” campaign.  Can Abbott change himself this late in the game? 

Source: Abbott, a man with a gripe and a mantra: Sydney Morning Herald

Toeing the party line on same sex marriage

If anyone doubted that Senator Penny Wong was a consummate politician who would never depart from the party line, an article from the Sydney Morning Herald smashes that doubt.

Senator Wong, the first openly gay cabinet minister, said of same sex marriage:

‘‘I think the reality is there is a cultural, religious, historical view around that which we have to respect,’’ she told Network Ten today.

‘‘The party’s position is very clear that this is an institution that is between a man and a woman.’’

Senator Wong said she respected Labor’s view of marriage as an institution between a man and a woman.

‘‘I am part of a party and I support the party’s policies.’’

Senator Wong did point out that the Rudd Government did make a number of advancements of the cause of same sex couples.

Senator Wong … said she was proud of what the party had achieved in recognising the value and importance of same-sex relationships.

Various reforms had been made during Labor’s first term of government, including the changing of 80 pieces of legislation to remove commonwealth discrimination.

It is amazing how politicians can hold back their personal views on issues that directly affect them, just to hold the party line. 

This story made me think of an episode of The West Wing (incidentally my favourite TV show) where a gay congressman produced a bill banning marriage.  Deputy Chief of Staff Joshua Lyman wrongly thought he was trying to ban gay marriage.  Senator Boniot clarified:

“My bill bans all marriage. If the government can't make it available to everyone, I want us out of the business entirely.  Leave it to churches and synagogues, and, of course, casinos and department stores.”

Makes for an interesting point.  If Government’s have all sorts of discrimination legislation then why is this one area of discrimination so hard to deal with.  If Governments want to be in the business of sanctioning (non-religious) marriage then why can it not be afforded to same sex couples?  It is certainly not that it wouldn't get through Parliament.  The Gillard Government would have the support of the Greens.  Recent polling also suggests that it is favoured by a majority of Australians. 

I am not naive and I know that this is an emotive issue and would create a massive wedge between the ALP and the Coalition.  Perhaps the politics is the main reason why we will not see same sex marriage on the agenda for many years to come. 

Because as Penny Wong has shown this week, politics is number one in the land of politicians.

Julia Gillard: Dance craze “Moving Forward”

This is a dance craze that Triple M compiled.  Very funny.

The value (or lack of) of online polls

On the Daily Telegraph website today a poll asks who will win the upcoming election, Julia Gillard or Tony Abbott.  The result as at 9.35am is:

Which is funny considering the latest Newspoll shows:

 

Gillard: red; Abbott: blue

So how can we marry up these two conflicting polls?  What value should be placed on online (or even phone in) polls? 

I would suggest none. 

Online or phone in polls are based on people voluntarily using the website or calling the poll number.  This means they must be motivated to enter the poll and it may be biased for a number of other reasons. 

It may be that one type of party voter is more interested in taking part in the poll on a particular issue.  Voters who vote ALP may be more interested in reading about IR policy stories which have a linked question conversely Coalition voters may be more interested in a story linked to business.  This would therefore lead to a skewing in the sample pool.  The sample pool is hardly random. 

Other than this you just need to look at the above contrasting polls to know that something is up!

 

UPDATE:

This is further evidence of the lack of cogency of online polls.  On Monday 2/8/10 the Couriermail had a poll asking “Which party would get your first preference”  And the results:

So who reads and contributes to the couriermail polls?  Overwhelmingly Liberal supporters!

Talk radio entertains some truly horrible people

I recently reviewed the 4BC website and saw a section on Police pay demands.  I reviewed the handful of comments listed by listeners and came across this particularly disturbing one:

BRING BACK THE ICAC ... Lets see how many police hang themselves this time with all the police corruption and the hide of them wanting pay rises. I got offered a bribe by a moree police officer and all that happened to him was a slap on the wrist and i have this in black and white on paper, BRING BACK THE ICAC FIRST, see who hangs themselves first and then see if they deserve it - Terry Thursday 15 July, 2010 - 7:29 AM

To suggest that anyone should go an hang themself is disgraceful.  I applaud them for taking up the fight for Police to be offered more than the appalling 2.5% pay increase.  But for 4BC to allow this to be posted (presumably without moderation) on their site is disappointing and allows bigots a forum to spread their bile. 

 

On a side note: The ICAC is a NSW based organisation (not Qld) – the Independent Commission Against Corruption.  Moree is also a town in NSW.  Qld has a body called the CMC which is the same as ICAC therefore negating the need to bring back an ICAC. 

Terry is a moron!

The Abbott Family: Viral Video

This is the AWU's viral video of the Abbott Family which is doing the rounds this morning.

Some facts on benefits paid to Asylum Seekers: A good blog from Kochie

The below is a post from David Koch’s blog on the actual benefits paid to Asylum Seekers.  It dispels the popular email about how Asylum Seekers get paid more than Australian pensioners!  Worth a read to find out some of the facts. 

The Real Benefits For Asylum Seekers In Australia

Jul 14|07:09

…

If you’ve received an email which looks like this you should delete it, tell whoever sent it to you that they’re an idiot, and learn the facts…

• First of all, refugees are not illegal immigrants. It has never been illegal in Australia to arrive on shore without a visa seeking asylum. In fact it’s one of the rights within the UN’s declarations on refugees which Australia helped to write.

• When an asylum seeker arrives in Australia, they do not get any Centrelink benefits. While their status is being processed, and if they meet certain criteria, they can be eligible for financial support from the Asylum Seeker Assistance Scheme, administered through the Red Cross. This amount is 89% of the basic Centrelink allowance. This means approximately $405.84 per fortnight – over $260 less than a pensioner.

• Once an asylum seeker is recognised as a genuine refugee, after a long and highly scrutinized process, they are given permanent residency and are then entitled to the same Centrelink, schooling and health benefits as anyone else. No more, no less.

• The normal Centrelink welfare payment is $456 per fortnight, for a refugee with permanent residency and an Australian-born person. A pensioner in Australia receives $671.90. Over $200 more each fortnight. Even with family/parenting benefits, a refugee’s benefits would still be less than a pensioner’s income.

• For an asylum seeker to qualify for any payment under the Asylum Seeker Assistance Scheme, they must have lodged an application for a visa 6 months before, not be in detention, and not get any other payment or benefit.

• To get a permanent residence as a refugee, the person has to prove they are a genuine refugee fleeing persecution, go through character, security and medical tests, and sign an Australian Values Statement.

• ‘Boat people’ are asylum seekers. Refugees are asylum seekers who have been approved and given a visa. None of them are ‘illegal immigrants’.

The above facts come from the Department of Immigration and Citizenship, the Refugee Council of Australia, and from the Red Cross. A lot more reliable than a random email from a friend of a friend.

Before you make a judgment on asylum seeker policy, know the facts.

For more info, have a read of these:

- Myths about refugees and asylum seekers: the answers

- Response to lies and hoax emails – Refugee Council of Australi a

- Media Blunders on asylum seeker claims

- Assistance for Asylum seekers in Australia - DIAC

- Related articles: Avoid the Political Spin - Some Facts About Asylum Seekers

A polished performance matters as much as substance…to some

Politics should not be a personality contest, but unfortunately for a lot of people this is the case.  They don’t really understand the policy debates, or are just not interested. 

Opposition Leader Tony Abbott made his election announcement speech in Brisbane this past Saturday.   Tony Abbott’s speech was less than enthusiastic and he seemed as if he was thrown by the calling of the election even though it was announced (albeit not confirmed) the day before.  At one point he said:

This election isn’t about glib slogans.  It is not about glib slogans. It’s about competent government that works for every day Australians and that only the coalition stands ready to deliver. 

While this phrase seems good on paper, Tony Abbott couldn't sell it.  It is as though he doesn’t believe it or was given his speech a few minutes before going out to speak.  He had to read the most important parts of this section. 

Tony Abbott is not the polished performer that his opposite number, Julia Gillard, is.  Tony Abbott therefore needs to pick up his game because for some this is an important aspect in their politicians.

Now,back to the policy!

 

Full video of Tony Abbott's election announcement speech (Via Ten News)

Full video of Julia Gillard's election announcement speech

Work Choices: dead or alive?

Opposition Leader Tony Abbott has, since becoming leader, struggled with the notion of what to do about Work Choices.  This policy was central to the Howard Government and has been at the core of Liberal values for decades.  Abbott was a key member of the Government that implemented Work Choices and has long been an advocate of it. 

Earlier this week just prior to the election being called he spoke to the LNP Qld State Conference and said that Work Choices was not only dead but it had been cremated.  A strange line lacking wit, but it got the point across.  It was certainly better than his earlier statement that “the name Work Choices is dead.”

Tony Abbott then announced that there would be a 3 year moratorium on changes to Industrial Relation laws.  They would work within the laws and go to the umpire to settle any disputes.  But then came the startling admission from Senator Eric Abetz that they plan tweak the laws which means that through changes to the Regulations, which only require Ministerial consent, they can effectively do what tony Abbott said he would not do. 

Tony Abbott when question on the Today show seemed to indicate, what many people fear, that he will say on thing and do another.  He answered a question on whether he will bring back Work Choices after his first term by saying to Lisa Wilkinson, “Well, well Lisa, I've got an election to win”.  Later he spoke with Neil Mitchell where he hardened his position, presumably after speaking with his minders, and said that he would not be changing the legislation “not now, not ever”. 

The fear I have is that these statements fit into one of three Liberal election promise categories:

1. Non core promises
2. John Howard’s GST “never ever” promise
3. Tony Abbott’s make sure you get it in writing

But the startling part of Tony Abbott’s IR policy moratorium is that he freely admits that in 3 years time he will look to advance an agenda that would return some aspects of Work Choices.  Tony Abbott is looking for some fresh air between the Howard and (presumably) an Abbott Government with which to kill off public sentiment towards Work Choices. 

Tony Abbott is, as I blogged previously, more interested in winning elections and leaving wiggle room to change his policies.  He will say and do anything because he’s “got an election to win”.

The effects of the BP oil spill: Horrible photographic evidence

If you want to see some of the dramatic and devastating effects of the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico please check out Washington’s blog for a sample of some of the worst of the photo’s.

Don't Waste Your First Time: The Greens make a pitch for the young vote

This is a funny clip on making sure you are signed up to vote. You should know that as soon as the writs for the election are called the rolls close. So if you are not signed up to vote get on it and have your say.

On a side note: It is hypocritical that Sarah can get away with talking about giving away virginity (albeit satirically) and it is fine, but Tony Abbott was vilified for doing the same thing when giving advice to his daughters.

Clarke and Dawe on asylum seekers

It is sad that comedy usually hits very close to the mark, but no-one takes it seriously enough to change their mind. They just laugh and move on without really thinking about the issue.

This is a very funny clip!

Election 2010 Spoof Trailer - GetUp!

The Honourable Michael Kirby: An inspirational and compassionate man

I have just finished watching a story from the ABC’s Compass Program on the life of The Honourable Michael Kirby AO CMG former Associate Justice of the High Court.  It is a story which shows his great compassion, thoughtfulness and intelligence.  He has had an interesting life and is a great inspiration to young budding (left leaning) lawyers.

To view the show watch it here on the ABC’s iView

What I find amazing about Wyatt Roy

Wyatt Roy is the LNP candidate for the seat of Longman and he was profiled in the QWeekend magazine on Saturday 10/07/2010. 

He is just 20 years old and has become something of a spectacle since being preselected at the age of just 19.  But it is not purely his age that I find amazing about him, it is his grasp of the political lines and snipes at such a young age. 

He takes his first swipe at the ALP by saying,

“I don't think I would have been the candidate in the Labor Party.  The ALP is faceless men in smoky rooms in Canberra pr Brisbane saying to locals here’s the candidate you’re going to have. There’s no way I could be a part of the political party that does that.”

He then proves his skill as a politician through his rehearsed lines on policy areas:

 

 

Roy has the lines polished like he has been watching Tony Abbott on re-run since being preselected.  Although he does tend to differ from his leader on Climate Change where he suggests an insurance policy is needed.  (Is he suggesting the ETS as an insurance policy perhaps? I doubt it)

So should we look at Wyatt Roy as a 20 year old kid who is looking to break the mould and give us “hope and honesty.”  Or is he just another political hack who is willing to rehearse the lines the leadership set and do anything to gain power. 

Time will tell. 

QWeekend article on Wyatt Roy: 20 Year old candidate for Federal seat of Longman

Here is the full article from the QWeekend on Wyatt Roy.  Very supportive and little critical analysis. 

LNP sends printing to political friends: my problem with it.

My problem with the below story in today’s Courier Mail is is not so much that Michael O’Dwyer’s company is involved in printing LNP materials but the time when he set up the company.  If he was in the printing business before he took over as State director (or in the hierarchy of the party) then I have no problem with it.  If he set up the business after taking on his role as an opportunist to take advantage of his position then I do have a problem with it. 

A LIBERAL National Party heavyweight has been accused of benefiting from campaign expenditure from his own printing companies.

LNP MPs and candidates for the upcoming federal election have been encouraged to buy their election posters from companies owned by state director Michael O'Dwyer.

Company searches show he is the sole director, secretary and a shareholder in Modcons Marketing Services, which owns Phoenix Graphics and Vivid Prints.

Some of the party candidates told The Courier-Mail the LNP head office had arranged the printing of posters, or "corflutes", through Mr O'Dwyer's companies on their behalf.

"What they do is they give you a budget and on the budget line items, they say 'corflutes covered off'," said one candidate.

…

Mr O'Dwyer and LNP president Bruce McIver last night rejected allegations of a conflict of interest, saying a "protocol" was in place.

…

When asked if head office had handed out Phoenix's number to candidates, Mr O'Dwyer said if it had, he "had nothing to do with that at all".

Mr McIver said candidates were given the option of three companies to print corflutes and

Mr O'Dwyer was not allowed to "pay bills or place orders" with his own company. "He has nothing to do with it," he said.

…

Mr O'Dwyer said he was not aware of these complaints, saying he was "at arm's length from it, I don't handle that in here".

David Bonnici: Australian politics is not the West Wing

David Bonnici provides a humours take on Australian Politics and political junkies like me.  But he also provides a genuine analysis of why the Australian Government fails to act more humanely on Asylum Seekers and sadly as he sees it it has everything to do with cynical politics and winning elections.  No I know your shocked by that. I was too.  Here is some of what he had to say:

There is no better example of the absurdity of Australian politics than the asylum seeker issue. The facts are clear. Australia has a relatively small number of people seeking asylum. The number is a fraction of Australia’s migration intake. There is a trickle of asylum seekers not a flood. And the situation is being well managed, though it could be better handled if the government wasn’t afraid to use detention centres on the mainland to process refugee applications. It shouldn’t be as big an issue, but it is because the Liberal Party has made an art form of turning it into a border security problem; while pandering to those concerned that the skin colour of those arriving allows for further fears about the impact on Australian culture. This bullshit could have been nipped in the bud a long time ago. Instead it has been allowed to fester because we have a media organisations that by and large doesn’t question such claims, but happily reports them to suit their own agendas.

 

Via Group Think

Toll roads are not the answer

Lord Mayor Campbell Newman seems to think that toll roads (and tunnels) are the only answer to congestion problems. 

Brisbane City Council is investigating several plans to ease increasing congestion on the stretch, including a twin-lane double-decker tunnel built out into the Brisbane River.

The problem with toll roads, as experienced by the failing Clem7 tunnel, is that people just cant afford them.  How can we afford to pay the proposed amount which is over $4 per visit with all the other cost of living expense rises. 

Governments at all levels need to understand that the increases in the cost of living are beginning to seriously hurt people.  They need to think about this before coming up with great ideas to toll all the roads leading in and out of Brisbane.

 

Source: Toll looming for Kingsford Smith Drive upgrade | Courier Mail

Julie Bishop uses the force

Asylum seeker debate: Honesty urged

Prime Minister Julia Gillard appears ready to fulfil Kevin Rudd's prophecy of a lurch to the right on asylum seekers. It remains to be seen what her final policy will include but at this point she appears to be laying the groundwork for a tougher framework to deal with boat arrivals.

Noted Human Rights campaigner Julian Burnside QC this week called out the Prime Minister to "tell the truth" on asylum seekers. He said this week in Adelaide:

"I challenge her to tell the truth," Julian Burnside QC told journalists in Adelaide on Sunday.

"I challenge her to depart from what Tony Abbott has been doing - Tony Abbott has been lying to the public, creating an utterly false impression about the number of people who come by boat seeking asylum and the reasons that they come seeking asylum.

"I challenge Julia Gillard to point out to the public that at the current rate of arrivals it would take about 20 years to fill the MCG with boat people."

I agree with Julian Burnside QC. I hope that some truth can come through in this debate. But unfortunately I think that fear will win through. Fear of a repeat of a Tampa election.



Source: Gillard urged to be honest on asylum seekers

Follow me on boats, Tony Abbott tells Julia Gillard | Courier Mail

Tony Abbott wants a return to the Howard days of appalling treatment of asylum seekers. Why are we prepared to let our fellow human beings be treated as political pawns?

TONY Abbott has called on the Federal Government to immediately adopt the Coalition's border protection policy.

Prime Minister Julia Gillard has vowed to tackle the asylum seeker issue in the same spirit she resolved the bitter tax war with miners.

The Opposition says Ms Gillard must restore the Coalition's border protection policy.

"The Coalition has a policy, it's a policy that has worked in the past, it will work again in the future and I would invite her to adopt our policy immediately," he said.

Source: Follow me on boats, Tony Abbott tells Julia Gillard | Courier Mail

Clarke and Dawe - Julia's First Interview.