Anna Bligh’s Leadership: Doomed or Destined?

There remains speculation about whether the leadership of Anna Bligh will last until the next election. This speculation is no doubt being fuelled by the unions and members against privatisation. There is real disharmony between a number of unions including the Queensland Council of Unions and the Government over the Governments post election announcement of the sale of certain public assets.

The government claims it is the only way to continue the building program but unions either don't believe it or don't care. The Government however would not be surprised that it is receiving large scale backlash from the Unions and Labor Party members. Privatisation has been strongly opposed by the Labor Party and is a central component of Labor Party policy and their "DNA". Anna Bligh would be hoping that they can get these sales completed before the next ALP State Conference. Perhaps this is why there is talk of a special conference. Because you can't unscramble an egg so to speak!

But is Anna Blighs' leadership under threat? Are there any real alternatives? The Government appears to have a united front on the asset sales. All ministers appear to support the decision. This would then make any change irrelevant on the grounds of stopping the asset sales. Besides this major point there are only a few Members of the Government who could successfully step into the breach should a coup occur at George Street.

The names bandied about as potential leaders include Deputy Premier Paul Lucas, Attorney General Cameron Dick, Treasurer Andrew Fraser, and Speaker of the House John Mickel.

Since Paul Lucas was given the poisoned chalice that is the Health Portfolio he has managed it quite well. There has only been one incident of note, the overpayment of some staff, but most of this was during a period while he was not the Minister. He has been a strong performer over time and would be seen as a natural successor. But how would he distance himself from Bligh? To make a change in leader there needs to be a shift in the debate not just a different face sprouting the lines. I think the public would find it difficult to believe that there was a difference leader in Lucas.

John Mickel has had the benefit of being in the Speaker's job since the March election. This has seen him largely out of the public eye which has increased his image as a strong leadership contender. But the media would not let him forget the so called "gravy train" incident that occurred on his watch as Transport Minister.

Andrew Fraser has ascended the ALP and Government ranks quite quickly to be a 32 year old Treasurer. There is no doubt that he has the Premier's job in his sights one day but he will struggle to win over the public when has to be the public face of the Government's hard decisions. Fraser has been a controversial figure since he instituted the Local Government Amalgamations. But Fraser has shown he is as tough as nails and gets the job done. But I don't know how palatable he would be with the general public as leader.

First term Attorney General Cameron Dick has made one of the biggest splashes on the political scene in a long time. He was made AG only a couple of days after being elected to Parliament. Since then he has instigated long overdue reforms of the Criminal and Civil Justice System as well as actively appealing decisions that are too lenient by community standards. He also has the political advantage of not being around for the past 10 years of Labor rule and can distance himself, if only slightly, from any previous Government decisions. He is however a first tem politician and this would be exploited by the LNP to tag him as too inexperienced to be trusted with the reins of power, albeit incorrectly. He is extremely capable and intelligent and will be a future leader but probably not just yet.

With these four being the obvious and only choices when it comes to leadership alternatives the Labor party would be best to remain with the status quo. Anna Bligh has been a strong leader since taking on the job. She has acted as a Premier should. She is not a populist, pandering to her base (unions). She acts on what she believes will be best for the State. Now she may be wrong about what is best for the State but at least she has convictions and is prepared to stick by them. Unlike the LNP who support the privatisation of everything the State owns except when it will win points at the ballot box or increase infighting in the ALP. If the ALP are to go into the next election with any chance, Anna Bligh needs to finalise the asset sales quickly and sell to the public the increased convenience in their lives as a result of the infrastructure building.

But as a first step I am sure Anna will be making a Christmas wish to remain leader past the middle of next year!